Land use change in agricultural systems: an integrated ecological-social simulation model of farmer decisions and cropping system performance based on a cellular automata appro

08/10/2021
by   Diego Ferraro, et al.
0

Agricultural systems experience land-use changes that are driven by population growth and intensification of technological inputs. This results in land-use and cover change (LUCC) dynamics representing a complex landscape transformation process. In order to study the LUCC process we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model in the form of a Cellular Automata implemented with the Cell-DEVS formalism. The resulting model called AgroDEVS is used for predicting LUCC dynamics along with their associated economic and environmental changes. AgroDEVS is structured using behavioral rules and functions representing a) crop yields, b) weather conditions, c) economic profit, d) farmer preferences, e) technology level adoption and f) natural resources consumption based on embodied energy accounting. Using data from a typical location of the Pampa region (Argentina) for the 1988-2015 period, simulation exercises showed that the economic goals were achieved, on average, each 6 out of 10 years, but the environmental thresholds were only achieved in 1.9 out of 10 years. In a set of 50-years simulations, LUCC patterns quickly converge towards the most profitable crop sequences, with no noticeable tradeoff between the economic and environmental conditions.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

03/15/2021

UrbanVCA: a vector-based cellular automata framework to simulate the urban land-use change at the land-parcel level

Vector-based cellular automata (CA) based on real land-parcel has become...
07/01/2020

Computational Model for Urban Growth Using Socioeconomic Latent Parameters

Land use land cover changes (LULCC) are generally modeled using multi-sc...
05/11/2020

Harmonised LUCAS in-situ data and photos on land cover and use from 5 tri-annual surveys in the European Union

Accurately characterizing land surface changes with Earth Observation re...
03/03/2021

Land Cover Mapping in Limited Labels Scenario: A Survey

Land cover mapping is essential for monitoring global environmental chan...
03/31/2020

A spatial agent based model for simulating and optimizing networked eco-industrial systems

Industrial symbiosis involves creating integrated cycles of by-products ...
09/29/2021

Economic Analysis of the Utilization of Disused Biomass from the Agricultural Activity in the Region of Thessaloniki

Abstract: This paper aims to describe an environmental problem, the accu...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.