Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images

by   Franco Marchesoni-Acland, et al.

Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated cloud motion estimates from geostationary satellite images. This work explores the use of satellite information in a simpler way, namely spatial averages that require almost no preprocessing. Adaptive auto-regressive models are used to assess the impact of this information on the forecasting performance. A complete analysis regarding model selection, the satellite averaging window size and the inclusion of satellite past measurements is provided. It is shown that: (i) satellite spatial averages are useful inputs and the averaging window size is an important parameter, (ii) satellite lags are of limited utility and spatial averages are more useful than weighted time averages, and (iii) there is no value in fine-tuning the orders of auto-regressive models for each time horizon, as the same performance can be obtained by using a fixed well-selected order. These ideas are tested for a region with intermediate solar variability, and the models succeed to outperform a proposed optimal smart persistence, used here as an exigent performance benchmark.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Convolutional Neural Networks applied to sky images for short-term solar irradiance forecasting

Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar...

Omnivision forecasting: combining satellite observations with sky images for improved intra-hour solar energy predictions

Integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into electric grids...

Short-term photovoltaic generation forecasting using multiple heterogenous sources of data

Renewable Energies (RES) penetration is progressing rapidly: in France, ...

A deep learning approach to solar-irradiance forecasting in sky-videos

Ahead-of-time forecasting of incident solar-irradiance on a panel is ind...

An Unsupervised Method for Estimating the Global Horizontal Irradiance from Photovoltaic Power Measurements

In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal ir...

A Guide to Solar Power Forecasting using ARMA Models

We describe a simple and succinct methodology to develop hourly auto-reg...

Storm Detection by Visual Learning Using Satellite Images

Computers are widely utilized in today's weather forecasting as a powerf...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset