Inference under Superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Germany
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Superspreading complicates the study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. I propose a model for aggregated case data that accounts for superspreading and improves statistical inference. In a Bayesian framework, the model is estimated on German data featuring over 60,000 cases with date of symptom onset and age group. Several factors were associated with a strong reduction in transmission: public awareness rising, testing and tracing, information on local incidence, and high temperature. Immunity after infection, school and restaurant closures, stay-at-home orders, and mandatory face covering were associated with a smaller reduction in transmission. The data suggests that public distancing rules increased transmission in young adults. Information on local incidence was associated with a reduction in transmission of up to 44 which suggests a prominent role of behavioral adaptations to local risk of infection. Testing and tracing reduced transmission by 15 where the effect was strongest among the elderly. Extrapolating weather effects, I estimate that transmission increases by 53 colder seasons.
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