Identifying the Causes of Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)

11/16/2022

∙

A first causal discovery analysis from observational data of pyroCb (storm clouds generated from extreme wildfires) is presented. Invariant Causal Prediction was used to develop tools to understand the causal drivers of pyroCb formation. This includes a conditional independence test for testing Y conditionally independent of E given X for binary variable Y and multivariate, continuous variables X and E, and a greedy-ICP search algorithm that relies on fewer conditional independence tests to obtain a smaller more manageable set of causal predictors. With these tools, we identified a subset of seven causal predictors which are plausible when contrasted with domain knowledge: surface sensible heat flux, relative humidity at 850 hPa, a component of wind at 250 hPa, 13.3 micro-meters, thermal emissions, convective available potential energy, and altitude.

READ FULL TEXT

Identifying the Causes of Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)

Efficient Local Causal Discovery Based on Markov Blanket

Conditional Independence Testing with Heteroskedastic Data and Applications to Causal Discovery

On the Sample Complexity of Causal Discovery and the Value of Domain Expertise

Conditionally-additive-noise Models for Structure Learning

Variance Minimization in the Wasserstein Space for Invariant Causal Prediction

cuPC: CUDA-based Parallel PC Algorithm for Causal Structure Learning on GPU

Enabling Runtime Verification of Causal Discovery Algorithms with Automated Conditional Independence Reasoning (Extended Version)

Identifying the Causes of Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)

Related Research

Efficient Local Causal Discovery Based on Markov Blanket

Conditional Independence Testing with Heteroskedastic Data and Applications to Causal Discovery

On the Sample Complexity of Causal Discovery and the Value of Domain Expertise

Conditionally-additive-noise Models for Structure Learning

Variance Minimization in the Wasserstein Space for Invariant Causal Prediction

cuPC: CUDA-based Parallel PC Algorithm for Causal Structure Learning on GPU

Enabling Runtime Verification of Causal Discovery Algorithms with Automated Conditional Independence Reasoning (Extended Version)