Hierarchical Causal Analysis of Natural Languages on a Chain Event Graph

10/03/2021
by   Xuewen Yu, et al.
0

Various graphical models are widely used in reliability to provide a qualitative description of domain experts hypotheses about how a system might fail. Here we argue that the semantics developed within standard causal Bayesian networks are not rich enough to fully capture the intervention calculus needed for this domain and a more tree-based approach is necessary. We instead construct a Bayesian hierarchical model with a chain event graph at its lowest level so that typical interventions made in reliability models are supported by a bespoke causal calculus. We then demonstrate how we can use this framework to automate the process of causal discovery from maintenance logs, extracting natural language information describing hypothesised causes of failures. Through our customised causal algebra we are then able to make predictive inferences about the effects of a variety of types of remedial interventions. The proposed methodology is illustrated throughout with examples drawn from real maintenance logs.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
09/14/2022

Identifying Causal Effects on a Chain Event Graph for Remedial Interventions

To efficiently analyse system reliability, graphical tools such as fault...
research
02/14/2020

Bayesian Learning of Causal Relationships for System Reliability

Causal theory is now widely developed with many applications to medicine...
research
10/22/2018

Properties of an N Time-Slice Dynamic Chain Event Graph

A Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) provides a rich tree-based framework ...
research
04/11/2022

Markov categories, causal theories, and the do-calculus

We give a category-theoretic treatment of causal models that formalizes ...
research
11/21/2018

The Reduced Dynamic Chain Event Graph

In this paper we introduce a new class of probabilistic graphical models...
research
05/15/2023

Estimating the Causal Effects of Natural Logic Features in Neural NLI Models

Rigorous evaluation of the causal effects of semantic features on langua...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset