Hawkes Processes for Invasive Species Modeling and Management

12/12/2017
by   Amrita Gupta, et al.
0

The spread of invasive species to new areas threatens the stability of ecosystems and causes major economic losses in agriculture and forestry. We propose a novel approach to minimizing the spread of an invasive species given a limited intervention budget. We first model invasive species propagation using Hawkes processes, and then derive closed-form expressions for characterizing the effect of an intervention action on the invasion process. We use this to obtain an optimal intervention plan based on an integer programming formulation, and compare the optimal plan against several ecologically-motivated heuristic strategies used in practice. We present an empirical study of two variants of the invasive control problem: minimizing the final rate of invasions, and minimizing the number of invasions at the end of a given time horizon. Our results show that the optimized intervention achieves nearly the same level of control that would be attained by completely eradicating the species, with a 20 heuristic intervention strategy based on a combination of the density and life stage of the invasive individuals, and find that it comes surprisingly close to the optimized strategy, suggesting that this could serve as a good rule of thumb in invasive species management.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 5

04/16/2021

Data-driven Optimization Model for Global Covid-19 Intervention Plans

In the wake of COVID-19, every government huddles to find the best inter...
10/19/2017

Visual Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Event Predictions: Investigating the Spread Dynamics of Invasive Species

Invasive species are a major cause of ecological damage and commercial l...
05/07/2021

The iWildCam 2021 Competition Dataset

Camera traps enable the automatic collection of large quantities of imag...
11/02/2018

Unique Identification of Macaques for Population Monitoring and Control

Despite loss of natural habitat due to development and urbanization, cer...
07/15/2020

Testing biodiversity using inhomogeneous summary statistics

McGill's theory of biodiversity is based upon three axioms: individuals ...
11/18/2017

Scalable Relaxations of Sparse Packing Constraints: Optimal Biocontrol in Predator-Prey Network

Cascades represent rapid changes in networks. A cascading phenomenon of ...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.