Goodness of fit by Neyman-Pearson testing
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The Neyman-Pearson strategy for hypothesis testing can be employed for goodness of fit if the alternative hypothesis H_1 is generic enough not to introduce a significant bias while at the same time avoiding overfitting. A practical implementation of this idea (dubbed NPLM) has been developed in the context of high energy physics, targeting the detection in collider data of new physical effects not foreseen by the Standard Model. In this paper we initiate a comparison of this methodology with other approaches to goodness of fit, and in particular with classifier-based strategies that share strong similarities with NPLM. NPLM emerges from our comparison as more sensitive to small departures of the data from the expected distribution and not biased towards detecting specific types of anomalies while being blind to others. These features make it more suited for agnostic searches for new physics at collider experiments. Its deployment in other contexts should be investigated.
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