Generative Capacity of Probabilistic Protein Sequence Models
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Variational autoencoders (VAEs) have recently gained popularity as generative protein sequence models (GPSMs) to explore fitness landscapes and predict the effect of mutations. Despite encouraging results, a quantitative characterization of the VAE-generated probability distribution is still lacking. In particular, it is currently unclear whether or not VAEs can faithfully reproduce the complex multi-residue mutation patterns observed in natural sequences arising due to epistasis. In other words, are frequently observed subsequences assigned a correspondingly large probability by the VAE? Using a set of sequence statistics we comparatively assess the accuracy, or "generative capacity", of three GPSMs: a pairwise Potts Hamiltonian, a vanilla VAE, and a site-independent model, using natural and synthetic datasets. We show that the vanilla VAE's generative capacity lies between the pairwise Potts and site-independent models. Importantly, our work measures GPSM generative capacity in terms of higher-order sequence covariation and provides a new framework for evaluating and interpreting GPSM accuracy that emphasizes the role of epistasis.
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