Fully reconciled GDP forecasts from Income and Expenditure sides
share
In this paper we re-consider the results of Athanasopoulos et al. (2019), where the forecasts of the Australian quarterly series which form the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices are separately reconciled from Income (16 time series) and Expenditure (80 time series) sides. We instead propose a complete reconciliation strategy, resulting in a `one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both sides' forecasted series, and evaluate the performance of the reconciled forecasts according to the new proposal.
READ FULL TEXT