Forecasting Crime Using ARIMA Model

03/18/2020
by   Khawar Islam, et al.
0

Data mining is the process in which we extract the different patterns and useful Information from large dataset. According to London police, crimes are immediately increases from beginning of 2017 in different borough of London. No useful information is available for prevent crime on future basis. We forecasts crime rates in London borough by extracting large dataset of crime in London and predicted number of crimes in future. We used time series ARIMA model for forecasting crimes in London. By giving 5 years of data to ARIMA model forecasting 2 years crime data. Comparatively, with exponential smoothing ARIMA model has higher fitting values. A real dataset of crimes reported by London police collected from its website and other resources. Our main concept is divided into four parts. Data extraction (DE), data processing (DP) of unstructured data, visualizing model in IBM SPSS. DE extracts crime data from web sources during 2012 for the 2016 year. DP integrates and reduces data and give them predefined attributes. Crime prediction is analyzed by applying some calculation, calculated their moving average, difference, and auto-regression. Forecasted Model gives 80 model. This work helps for London police in decision-making against crime.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

01/31/2021

Learning Interpretable Deep State Space Model for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distributi...
11/10/2020

Forecasting and Analyzing the Military Expenditure of India Using Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

The advancement in the field of statistical methodologies to economic da...
01/04/2021

Improving forecasting with sub-seasonal time series patterns

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern b...
06/30/2021

Protecting Time Series Data with Minimal Forecast Loss

Forecasting could be negatively impacted due to anonymization requiremen...
03/30/2021

Model combinations through revised base-rates

Standard selection criteria for forecasting models focus on information ...
02/09/2021

The future of forecasting competitions: Design attributes and principles

Forecasting competitions are the equivalent of laboratory experimentatio...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.