Forecasting and Analyzing the Military Expenditure of India Using Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

by   Deepanshu Sharma, et al.

The advancement in the field of statistical methodologies to economic data has paved its path towards the dire need for designing efficient military management policies. India is ranked as the third largest country in terms of military spender for the year 2019. Therefore, this study aims at utilizing the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for time series forecasting of the military expenditure of India in forthcoming times. The model was generated on the SIPRI dataset of Indian military expenditure of 60 years from the year 1960 to 2019. The trend was analysed for the generation of the model that best fitted the forecasting. The study highlights the minimum AIC value and involves ADF testing (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) to transform expenditure data into stationary form for model generation. It also focused on plotting the residual error distribution for efficient forecasting. This research proposed an ARIMA (0,1,6) model for optimal forecasting of military expenditure of India with an accuracy of 95.7 The model, thus, acts as a Moving Average (MA) model and predicts the steady-state exponential growth of 36.94 2024.



There are no comments yet.



Hierarchical Forecasting of Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka

The recurrent thread of dengue incidence in Sri Lanka is still abundant ...

Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian GDP: Univariate Models Approach

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important economic indicator that agg...

Forecasting Crime Using ARIMA Model

Data mining is the process in which we extract the different patterns an...

Electoral Forecasting Using a Novel Temporal Attenuation Model: Predicting the US Presidential Elections

Electoral forecasting is an ongoing scientific challenge with high socia...

Analysis and Forecasting of Fire incidence in Davao City

Fire incidence is a big problem for every local government unit in the P...

Cardiology Admissions from Catheterization Laboratory: Time Series Forecasting

Emergent and unscheduled cardiology admissions from cardiac catheterizat...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.