Feature-based Transferable Disruption Prediction for future tokamaks using domain adaptation

by   Chengshuo Shen, et al.

The high acquisition cost and the significant demand for disruptive discharges for data-driven disruption prediction models in future tokamaks pose an inherent contradiction in disruption prediction research. In this paper, we demonstrated a novel approach to predict disruption in a future tokamak only using a few discharges based on a domain adaptation algorithm called CORAL. It is the first attempt at applying domain adaptation in the disruption prediction task. In this paper, this disruption prediction approach aligns a few data from the future tokamak (target domain) and a large amount of data from the existing tokamak (source domain) to train a machine learning model in the existing tokamak. To simulate the existing and future tokamak case, we selected J-TEXT as the existing tokamak and EAST as the future tokamak. To simulate the lack of disruptive data in future tokamak, we only selected 100 non-disruptive discharges and 10 disruptive discharges from EAST as the target domain training data. We have improved CORAL to make it more suitable for the disruption prediction task, called supervised CORAL. Compared to the model trained by mixing data from the two tokamaks, the supervised CORAL model can enhance the disruption prediction performance for future tokamaks (AUC value from 0.764 to 0.890). Through interpretable analysis, we discovered that using the supervised CORAL enables the transformation of data distribution to be more similar to future tokamak. An assessment method for evaluating whether a model has learned a trend of similar features is designed based on SHAP analysis. It demonstrates that the supervised CORAL model exhibits more similarities to the model trained on large data sizes of EAST. FTDP provides a light, interpretable, and few-data-required way by aligning features to predict disruption using small data sizes from the future tokamak.


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