Expectation propagation for the smoothing distribution in dynamic probit

09/04/2023

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by   Niccolò Anceschi, et al.

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The smoothing distribution of dynamic probit models with Gaussian state dynamics was recently proved to belong to the unified skew-normal family. Although this is computationally tractable in small-to-moderate settings, it may become computationally impractical in higher dimensions. In this work, adapting a recent more general class of expectation propagation (EP) algorithms, we derive an efficient EP routine to perform inference for such a distribution. We show that the proposed approximation leads to accuracy gains over available approximate algorithms in a financial illustration.