Estimating undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba by means of a hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach

08/07/2020

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by   Gabriel Gil, et al.

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We adapt the hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach of Ref. [1] to estimate the total number of undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba. This scheme is based on the maximum likelihood estimation of a SIR-like model parameters for the infected population, assuming that the detection process matches a Bernoulli trial. Our estimations show that (a) 60 undocumented, (b) the real epidemics behind the data peaked ten days before the reports suggested, and (c) the reproduction number swiftly vanishes after 80 epidemic days.