Estimating functional parameters for understanding the impact of weather and government interventions on COVID-19 outbreak

01/13/2021
by   Chih-Li Sung, et al.
0

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has shown profound effects on public health and the economy worldwide, it becomes crucial to assess the impact on the virus transmission and develop effective strategies to address the challenge. A new statistical model derived from the SIR epidemic model with functional parameters is proposed to understand the impact of weather and government interventions on the virus spread and also provide the forecasts of COVID-19 infections among eight metropolitan areas in the United States. The model uses Bayesian inference with Gaussian process priors to study the functional parameters nonparametrically, and sensitivity analysis is adopted to investigate the main and interaction effects of these factors. This analysis reveals several important results including the potential interaction effects between weather and government interventions, which shed new light on the effective strategies for policymakers to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak.

READ FULL TEXT
research
05/13/2020

When to Lift the Lockdown? Global COVID-19 Scenario Planning and Policy Effects using Compartmental Gaussian Processes

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has led government offi...
research
12/14/2020

A prognostic dynamic model applicable to infectious diseases providing easily visualized guides – A case study of COVID-19 in the UK

A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process unde...
research
01/11/2021

Impact of Interventional Policies Including Vaccine on Covid-19 Propagation and Socio-Economic Factors

A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and cause...
research
12/15/2022

Neural Network Augmented Compartmental Pandemic Models

Compartmental models are a tool commonly used in epidemiology for the ma...
research
04/23/2022

SEIRDV Model for QATAR COVID-19 Outbreak: A Case Study

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop m...
research
05/26/2020

SEIRD Model for Qatar Covid-19 Outbreak: A Case Study

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop m...
research
05/03/2021

Consumer Demand Modeling During COVID-19 Pandemic

The current pandemic has introduced substantial uncertainty to tradition...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset