EpiBeds: Data informed modelling of the COVID-19 hospital burden in England

by   Christopher E. Overton, et al.

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on the national healthcare system in England. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. We named this model EpiBeds. Data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow different clinical pathways, and the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds has provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.



There are no comments yet.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Secondary Use of Employee COVID-19 Symptom Reporting as Syndromic Surveillance as an Early Warning Signal of Future Hospitalizations

Importance: Alternative methods for hospital utilization forecasting, es...

Approximate Bayesian Computation for an Explicit-Duration Hidden Markov Model of COVID-19 Hospital Trajectories

We address the problem of modeling constrained hospital resources in the...

Routine Hospital-based SARS-CoV-2 Testing Outperforms State-based Data in Predicting Clinical Burden

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, government policy and healthcare imple...

Large-scale Analysis of Opioid Poisoning Related Hospital Visits in New York State

Opioid related deaths are increasing dramatically in recent years, and o...

Epidemic? The Attack Surface of German Hospitals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

In our paper we analyze the attack surface of German hospitals and healt...

Optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policy for Covid-19 epidemic via neuroevolution algorithm

National responses to the Covid-19 pandemic varied markedly across count...

Forecasting Emergency Department Capacity Constraints for COVID Isolation Beds

Predicting patient volumes in a hospital setting is a well-studied appli...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.