Discovering a Regularity: the Case of An 800-year Law of Advances in Small-Arms Technologies

08/09/2019
by   Alexander Kott, et al.
0

Considering a broad family of technologies where a measure of performance (MoP) is difficult or impossible to formulate, we seek an alternative measure that exhibits a regular pattern of evolution over time, similar to how a MoP may follow a Moore's law. In an empirical case study, we explore an approach to identifying such a composite measure called a Figure of Regularity (FoR). We use the proposed approach to identify a novel FoR for diverse classes of small arms - bows, crossbows, harquebuses, muskets, rifles, repeaters, and assault rifles - and show that this FoR agrees well with the empirical data. We identify a previously unreported regular trend in the FoR of an exceptionally long duration - from approximately 1200 CE to the present - and discuss how research managers can analyze long-term trends in conjunction with a portfolio of research directions.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

03/01/2018

45-year CPU evolution: one law and two equations

Moore's law and two equations allow to explain the main trends of CPU ev...
09/21/2016

Revealing Structure in Large Graphs: Szemerédi's Regularity Lemma and its Use in Pattern Recognition

Introduced in the mid-1970's as an intermediate step in proving a long-s...
03/17/2019

Robust Shape Regularity Criteria for Superpixel Evaluation

Regular decompositions are necessary for most superpixel-based object re...
04/30/2019

First digit law from Laplace transform

The occurrence of digits 1 through 9 as the leftmost nonzero digit of nu...
04/17/2020

On Regularity of Max-CSPs and Min-CSPs

We study approximability of regular constraint satisfaction problems, i....
03/03/2021

Lotka's Law and Authorship Distribution in Coronary Artery Disease Research in South Africa

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a major cause of death and disability i...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.