Covid-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursery homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts from school opening

09/07/2020

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by   Nicolas Franco, et al.

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We model the evolution of the covid-19 epidemic in Belgium with an age-structured extended SEIR-QD epidemic model with separated consideration for nursery homes. All parameters of the model are estimated using a MCMC method, except integrated data on social contacts. The model is calibrated on hospitals' data, number of deaths, nursery homes' tests and serological tests. We present the current situation on September 2020 as well as long-term scenarios-based forecasts with the possibility of a second wave in function of new transmissions from contacts at school.