Conditional probability generation methods for high reliability effects-based decision making

12/28/2015
by   Wolfgang Garn, et al.
0

Decision making is often based on Bayesian networks. The building blocks for Bayesian networks are its conditional probability tables (CPTs). These tables are obtained by parameter estimation methods, or they are elicited from subject matter experts (SME). Some of these knowledge representations are insufficient approximations. Using knowledge fusion of cause and effect observations lead to better predictive decisions. We propose three new methods to generate CPTs, which even work when only soft evidence is provided. The first two are novel ways of mapping conditional expectations to the probability space. The third is a column extraction method, which obtains CPTs from nonlinear functions such as the multinomial logistic regression. Case studies on military effects and burnt forest desertification have demonstrated that so derived CPTs have highly reliable predictive power, including superiority over the CPTs obtained from SMEs. In this context, new quality measures for determining the goodness of a CPT and for comparing CPTs with each other have been introduced. The predictive power and enhanced reliability of decision making based on the novel CPT generation methods presented in this paper have been confirmed and validated within the context of the case studies.

READ FULL TEXT
research
07/27/2014

Conditional Plausibility Measures and Bayesian Networks

A general notion of algebraic conditional plausibility measures is defin...
research
06/08/2022

Bayesian multivariate logistic regression for superiority and inferiority decision-making under treatment heterogeneity

The effects of a treatment may differ between patients with different ch...
research
01/18/2013

User Interface Tools for Navigation in Conditional Probability Tables and Elicitation of Probabilities in Bayesian Networks

Elicitation of probabilities is one of the most laborious tasks in build...
research
01/16/2019

Survey of Bayesian Networks Applications to Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles

This article reviews the applications of Bayesian Networks to Intelligen...
research
02/06/2013

Correlated Action Effects in Decision Theoretic Regression

Much recent research in decision theoretic planning has adopted Markov d...
research
12/15/2014

Generating Graphical Chain by Mutual Matching of Bayesian Network and Extracted Rules of Bayesian Network Using Genetic Algorithm

With the technology development, the need of analyze and extraction of u...
research
05/17/2023

Finding an ε-close Variation of Parameters in Bayesian Networks

This paper addresses the ϵ-close parameter tuning problem for Bayesian N...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset