Comparison Between Bayesian and Frequentist Tail Probability Estimates

05/09/2019

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by   Nan Shen, et al.

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In this paper, we investigate the reasons that the Bayesian estimator of the tail probability is always higher than the frequentist estimator. Sufficient conditions for this phenomenon are established both by using Jensen's Inequality and by looking at Taylor series approximations, both of which point to the convexity of the distribution function.