Comparing the Behaviour of Deterministic and Stochastic Model of SIS Epidemic

by   Kurnia Susvitasari, et al.

Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the behaviour of the models when we set the basic reproduction number, R_0. This quantity is defined as the expected number of contacts made by a typical infective to susceptibles in the population. According to the epidemic threshold theory, when R_0 ≤ 1, minor epidemic occurs with probability one in both approaches, but when R_0 > 1, the deterministic and stochastic models have different interpretation. In the deterministic approach, major epidemic occurs with probability one when R_0 > 1 and predicts that the disease will settle down to an endemic equilibrium. Stochastic models, on the other hand, identify that the minor epidemic can possibly occur. If it does, then the epidemic will die out quickly. Moreover, if we let the population size be large and the major epidemic occurs, then it will take off and then reach the endemic level and move randomly around the deterministic's equilibrium.


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