Coincidences and the encounter problem: A formal account

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence, based on non-trivial computations. The model presented here suggests that coincidences occur when subjects perceive complexity drops. Co-occurring events are, together, simpler than if considered separately. This model leads to a possible redefinition of subjective probability.

READ FULL TEXT
research
03/27/2013

Objective Probability

A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" p...
research
03/06/2013

A Bayesian Variant of Shafer's Commonalities For Modelling Unforeseen Events

Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two...
research
10/28/2021

On rereading Savage

If we accept Savage's set of axioms, then all uncertainties must be trea...
research
07/16/2020

Prediction of the Subjective Impression of Passenger Car Roll Dynamics on the Driver Based on Frequency-Domain Characteristic Values

Characteristic values are essential for the design and assessment of dri...
research
09/14/2015

Natural scene statistics mediate the perception of image complexity

Humans are sensitive to complexity and regularity in patterns. The subje...
research
01/20/2023

Prodromal Diagnosis of Lewy Body Diseases Based on the Assessment of Graphomotor and Handwriting Difficulties

To this date, studies focusing on the prodromal diagnosis of Lewy body d...
research
10/28/2020

Measuring non-trivial compositionality in emergent communication

Compositionality is an important explanatory target in emergent communic...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset