Cheap, robust and low carbon: comparing district heating scenarios using stochastic ordering
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Strategies for meeting low carbon objectives in energy are likely to take greater account of the benefits of district heating. Currently, district heating schemes typically use combined heat and power (CHP) supplemented with heat pumps attached to low temperature waste heat sources, powered either by electricity from the CHP itself or from the National Grid. Schemes have competing objectives, of which we identify three: the need for inexpensive energy, meeting low carbon objectives and robustness against, particularly, variation in demand and electricity prices. This paper compares different system designs under three scenarios, using ideas from stochastic dominance close in spirit to traditional ideas of robust design. One conclusion is that, under all considered scenarios, a heat pump provides the most robust solution.
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