Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?

03/01/2021
by   Philippe Goulet Coulombe, et al.
0

Based on evidence gathered from a newly built large macroeconomic data set for the UK, labeled UK-MD and comparable to similar datasets for the US and Canada, it seems the most promising avenue for forecasting during the pandemic is to allow for general forms of nonlinearity by using machine learning (ML) methods. But not all nonlinear ML methods are alike. For instance, some do not allow to extrapolate (like regular trees and forests) and some do (when complemented with linear dynamic components). This and other crucial aspects of ML-based forecasting in unprecedented times are studied in an extensive pseudo-out-of-sample exercise.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 12

page 16

page 17

page 18

page 19

page 36

08/11/2020

So You Need Datasets for Your COVID-19 Detection Research Using Machine Learning?

Millions of people are infected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19...
08/04/2020

Macroeconomic Data Transformations Matter

From a purely predictive standpoint, rotating the predictors' matrix in ...
08/03/2020

A Survey on the Use of AI and ML for Fighting the COVID-19 Pandemic

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have made a parad...
04/15/2017

Machine Learning and the Future of Realism

The preceding three decades have seen the emergence, rise, and prolifera...
09/19/2020

Detecting Malicious URLs of COVID-19 Pandemic using ML technologies

Throughout the COVID-19 outbreak, malicious attacks have become more per...
06/16/2020

Toward Theory of Applied Learning. What is Machine Learning?

Various existing approaches to formalize machine learning (ML) problem a...
08/28/2020

How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?

We move beyond "Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.