Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: Redux

08/26/2018

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by   Hedibert F. Lopes, et al.

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Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter values, we provide a practical default Bayes factor which is straightforward to interpret. To illustrate our methodology, we provide examples where evidence for a Bayesian strikingly supports the null, but leads to rejection under a classical test. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.