Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games

07/11/2022

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by   Jason T. Maddox, et al.

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Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016) and Benz (2019). This paper proposes modifications to the approach of Maddox, et al. (2022) for the NBA game and investigates the performance of the model. Enhancements to the model are developed, and the resulting adjusted model is compared with existing methods and to the ESPN counterpart. To illustrate utility, all methods are applied to the November 23, 2019 game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets.