Crowd flow prediction is crucial for traffic management and public safety, and has drawn a lot of research interests due to its huge potentials in many intelligent applications, including intelligent traffic diversion and travel optimization.
Nowadays, we live in an era where ubiquitous digital devices are able to broadcast rich information about human mobility in real-time and at a high rate, which exponentially increases the availability of large-scale mobility data (e.g., GPS signals or mobile phone signals). In this paper, we generate the crowd flow maps from these mobility data and utilize the historical crowd flow maps to forecast the future crowd flow of a city. As shown in Fig. 1, we partition a city into a grid map based on the longitude and latitude, and measure the number of pedestrians in each region at each time interval with the mobility data. Although the regional scale can vary greatly in different cities, the core problem lies in excavating the evolution of traffic flow in different spatial and temporal regions.
Recently, notable successes have been achieved for citywide crowd flow prediction based on deep neural networks coupled with certain spatial-temporal priors (Zhang et al., 2016, 2017b). Nevertheless, there still exist several challenges limiting the performance of crowd flow analysis in complex scenarios. First, crowd flow data can vary greatly in temporal sequence and capturing such dynamic variations is non-trivial. Second, some periodic laws (e.g., traffic flow suddenly changing due to rush hours or pre-holiday effects) can greatly affect the situation of crowd flow, which increases the difficulty in learning crowd flow representations from data.
To solve all above issues, we propose a novel spatial-temporal neural network module, called Attentive Crowd Flow Machine (ACFM), to adaptively exploit diverse factors that affect crowd flow evolution and at the same time produce the crowd flow estimation map end-to-end in a unified module. The attention mechanism embedded in ACFM is designed to automatically discover the regions with primary positive impacts for the future flow prediction and simultaneously adjust the impacts of the different regions with different weights at each time-step. Specifically, the ACFM comprises two progressive ConvLSTM(Xingjian et al., 2015)
units. The first one takes input from i) the feature map representing flow density at each moment and ii) the memorized representations of previous moments, to compute the attentional weights, while the second LSTM aims at generating superior spatial-temporal feature representation from attentionally weighted sequential flow density features.
The proposed ACFM has the following appealing properties. First, it can effectively incorporate spatial-temporal information in feature representation and can flexibly compose solutions for crowd flow prediction with different types of input data. Second, by integrating the deep attention mechanism (Sharma et al., 2015; Lu et al., 2016), ACFM adaptively learns to represent the weights of each spatial location at each time-step, which allows the model to dynamically perceive the impact of the given area at a given moment for the future traffic flow. Third, ACFM is a general and differentiable module which can be effectively combined with various network architectures for end-to-end training.
In addition, for forecasting the citywide crowd flow, we further build a deep architecture based on the ACFM, which consists of three components: i) sequential representation learning, ii) periodic representation learning and iii) a temporally-varying fusion module. The first two components are implemented by two parallel ACFMs for contextual dependencies modeling at different temporal scales, while the temporally-varying fusion module is proposed to adaptively merge the two separate temporal representation for crowd flow predictions.
The main contributions of this work are three-fold:
We propose a novel ACFM neural network, which incorporates two LSTM modules with spatial-temporal attentional weights, to enhance the crowd flow prediction via adaptively weighted spatial-temporal feature modeling.
We integrate ACFM in our customized deep architecture for citywide crowd flow estimation, which recurrently incorporates various sequential and periodic dependencies with temporally-varying data.
Extensive experiments on two public benchmarks of crowd flow prediction demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods by large margins.
2. Related Work
Crowd Flow Analysis. Due to the wide application of traffic congestion analysis and public safety monitoring, citywide crowd flow analysis has recently attracted a wide range of research interest (Zheng et al., 2014). A pioneer work was proposed by Zheng et al., (Zheng, 2015)2015; Chen et al., 2016a; Li et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018a), many researchers also have attempted to handle this task with deep neural network. Fouladgar et al. (Fouladgar et al., 2017) introduced a scalable decentralized deep neural networks for urban short-term traffic congestion prediction. In (Zhang et al., 2016), a deep learning based framework was proposed to leverage the temporal information of various scales (i.e. temporal closeness, period and seasonal) for crowd flow prediction. Following this work, Zhang et al., (Zhang et al., 2017b) further employed a convolution based residual network to collectively predict inflow and outflow of crowds in every region of a city grid-map. To take more efficient temporal modeling into consideration, Dai et al. (Dai et al., 2017) proposed a deep hierarchical neural network for traffic flow prediction, which consists of an extraction layer to extract time-variant trend in traffic flow and a prediction layer for final crowd flow forecasting. Currently, to overcome the scarcity of crowd flow data, Wang et al. (Wang et al., 2018)
proposed to learn the target city model from the source city model with a region based cross-city deep transfer learning algorithm.
Memory and attention neural networks
. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) have been widely applied to various sequential prediction tasks(Sutskever et al., 2014; Donahue et al., 2015)
. As a variation of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) enables RNNs to store information over extended time intervals and exploit longer-term temporal dependencies. It was first applied to the research field of natural language processing(Luong et al., 2015) and speech recognition (Graves et al., 2013)
, while recently many researchers have attempted to combine CNN with LSTM to model the spatial-temporal information for various of computer vision applications, such as video salient object detection(Li et al., 2018), image caption (Mao et al., 2014; Wu et al., 2018) and action recognition (Veeriah et al., 2015). Visual attention is a fundamental aspect of human visual system, which refers to the process by which humans focus the computational resources of their brain’s visual system to specific regions of the visual field while perceiving the surrounding world. It has been recently embedded in deep convolution networks (Chen et al., 2016b) or recurrent neural networks to adaptively attend on mission-related regions while processing feedforward operation and have been proved effective for many tasks, including machine translation (Luong et al., 2015), crowd counting (Liu et al., 2018b), multi-label image classification (Wang et al., 2017), face hallucination (Cao et al., 2017), and visual question answering (Xu and Saenko, 2016). However, no existing work incorporates attention mechanism in crowd flow prediction.
The most relevant works to us are (Zhang et al., 2017a; Xiong et al., 2017), which also incorporate ConvLSTM for spatial-temporal modeling. However, they are used for consecutive video frames representation and aims to estimate the crowd counting on a given surveillance image instead of forecasting crowd flow evolution based on mobility data. Moreover, our proposed ACFM is composed of two progressive LSTM modules with learnable attention weights, which is not only adept at modeling spatial-temporal representation, but also efficiently capturing the effect on the global crowd flow evolution caused by the changes of traffic conditions in each particular spatial-temporal region (e.g. a traffic jam caused by an accident). Last but not the least, the attention mechanism embedded in our ACFM module also helps to improve the interpretability of the network process while boosting the performance.
In this section, we first describe some basic elements of crowd flow and then define the crowd flow prediction problem.
Region Partition: There are many ways to divide a city into multiple regions in terms of different granularities and semantic meanings, such as road network (Deng et al., 2016) and zip code tabular. In this study, following the previous works (Zhang et al., 2017b; Yao et al., 2018), we partition a city into non-overlapping grid map based on the longitude and latitude. Each rectangular grid represents a different geographical region in the city. Figure 1 illustrates the partitioned regions of Beijing and New York City.
Crowd Flow: In practical application, we can extract a mass of crowd trajectories from GPS signals or mobile phone signals. With those crowd trajectories, we can measure the number of pedestrians entering or leaving a given region at each time interval, which are called inflow and outflow in our work. For convenience, we denote the crowd flow map at the time interval of day as a tensor , of which the first channel is the inflow and the second channel is the outflow. Some crowd flow maps are visualized in Figure 5.
External Factors: As mentioned in the previous work (Zhang et al., 2017b), crowd flow can be affected by many complex external factors, such as meteorology information and holiday information. In this paper, we also consider the effect of these external factors. The meteorology information (e.g., weather condition, temperature and wind speed) can be collected from some public meteorological websites, such as Wunderground111https://www.wunderground.com/
. Specifically, the weather condition is categorized into sixteen categories (e.g., sunny and rainy) and it is digitized with One-Hot Encoding(Harris and Harris, 2010), while temperature and wind speed are scaled into the range [0, 1] with min-max linear normalization. Multiple categories of holiday 222The categories of holiday are variational in different datasets.
(e.g., Chinese Spring Festival and Christmas) can be acquired from calendar and encoded into a binary vector with One-Hot Encoding. Finally, we concatenate all external factors data to a 1D tensor. The external factors tensor at thetime interval of day is expressed as a in the following sections.
Crowd Flow Prediction: This problem aims to predict the crowd flow map , given historical crowd flow maps and external factors data until the time interval of day.
4. Attentive Crowd Flow Machine
We propose a unified neural network module, named Attentive Crowd Flow Machine (ACFM), to learn the crowd flow spatial-temporal representations. ACFM is designed to adequately capture various contextual dependencies of the crowd flow, e.g., the spatial consistency and the temporal dependency of long and short term. As shown on the left of Fig. 2, the ACFM is composed of two progressive ConvLSTM (Xingjian et al., 2015) units connected with a convolutional layer for attention weight prediction at each time step. The first LSTM (bottom LSTM in the figure) models the temporal dependency through original crowd flow feature embedding (extracted from CNN), the output hidden state of which is concatenated with current crowd flow feature and fed to a convolution layer for weight map inference. The second LSTM (upper LSTM in the figure) is of the same structure as the first LSTM but takes the re-weighted crowd flow features as input at each time-step and is trained to recurrently learn the spatial-temporal representations for further crowd flow prediction.
For better understanding, we denote the input feature map of the iteration as , with , and representing the height, width and the number of channels. Following (Hochreiter and Schmidhuber, 1997), the hidden state of first LSTM can be formulated as:
where is the memorized cell state of the first LSTM at iteration. The internal hidden state is maintained to model the dynamic temporal behavior of the previous crowd flow sequences.
We concatenate and to generate a new tensor, and feed it to a single convolutional layer with kernel size to generate an attention map , which can be expressed as:
where denotes feature concatenation and is the parameters of the convolutional layer. And indicates the weights of each spatial location on the feature map . We further reweigh with an element-wise multiplication according to and take the reweighed map as input to the second LSTM for representation learning, the hidden state of which can be formulated as:
where refers to the element-wise multiplication. encodes the attention-aware content of current input as well as memorizes the contextual knowledge of previous moments. The output of the last hidden state thus encodes the information of the whole crowd flow sequence, and is used as the spatial-temporal representation for evolution analysis of future flow map. In the next section, we will show how to incorporate the proposed ACFM in our crowd flow prediction framework.
5. Citywide Crowd Flow Prediction
We build a deep neural network architecture incorporated with our proposed ACFM to predict citywide crowd flow. As illustrated on the right of Fig. 2, the crowd flow prediction framework consists of three components: (1) sequential representation learning, (2) periodic representation learning and (3) a temporally-varying fusion module. For the first two parts of the framework, we employ the ACFM to model the contextual dependencies of crowd flow at different temporal scales. After that, a temporally-varying fusion module is proposed to adaptively merge the different feature embeddings from each component with the weight learned from the concatenation of respective feature representations and the external information. Finally, the merged feature map is fed to one additional convolution layer for crowd flow map inference.
5.1. Sequential Representation Learning
The evolution of citywide crowd flow is usually affected by diverse internal and external factors, e.g., current urban traffic and weather conditions. For instance, a traffic accident occurring on a city main road at 9 am may seriously affect the crowd flow of nearby regions in subsequent time periods. Similarly, a sudden rain may seriously affect the crowd flow in a specific region. To deal with these issues, we take several continuous crowd flow features and their corresponding external factors features as the sequential temporal features, and feed them into our ACFM to recurrently capture the trend of crowd flow in the short term.
Specifically, we denote the input sequential temporal features as:
where is the length of the sequentially related time intervals and denotes the embedding features of the crowd flow and the external factors at the time interval of the day. The extraction of embedding feature will be described in Section 5.4. We apply the proposed ACFM to learn sequential representation from temporal features . As shown on the right of Fig. 2, the ACFM recurrently takes each element of as input and learns to selectively memorize the context of this specific temporally-varying data. The output hidden state of the last iteration is further fed into a following convolution layer to generate a feature representation of size , denoted as , which forms the spatial-temporal feature embedding of the fine-grained sequential data.
5.2. Periodic Representation Learning
Generally, there exist some periodicities which make a significant impact on the changes of traffic flow. For example, the traffic conditions are very similar during morning rush hours of consecutive workdays, repeating every 24 hours. Similar with sequential representation learning described in Section 5.1, we take periodic temporal features
to capture the periodic property of crowd flow, where is the length of the periodic days. As shown on the right of Fig. 2, we employ ACFM to learn periodic representation with the periodic temporal features as input. The hidden output of the last iteration of ACFM is passed through a convolutional layer to generate a representation . The encodes the context of periodic laws, which is essential for crowd flow prediction.
5.3. Temporally-Varying Fusion
The future crowd flow is affected by the two temporally-varying representations and . A naive method is to directly merge those two representations, however it is suboptimal. In this subsection, we propose a novel temporally-varying fusion module to adaptively fuse the sequential representation and the periodic representation of crowd flow with different weight.
Considering that the external factors may affect the importance proportion of two representations, we take the sequential representation , periodic representation and the external factors integrative feature to calculate the fusion weight, where is the element-wise addition of external factors features of all relative time intervals and will be described in Section 5.4. As shown on the right of Fig. 2, we first concatenate , and
and feed them as input to two fully-connected layers (the first layer has 512 neurons and the second has only one neuron) for fusion weight inference. After a sigmoid function, the temporally-varying fusion module outputs a single value, which reflects the importance of the sequential representation . And is treated as the fusion weight of periodic representation .
We then merge these two temporal representations with different weight and further reduce the feature to two channels (input and output flow) with a linear transformation, which can be expressed as:
where is the linear transformation implemented by a convolution layer with two filters. The predicted crowd flow map can be computed as
where the hyperbolic tangent ensures the output values are within 333When training, we use Min-Max linear normalization method to scale the crowd flow maps into the range . When evaluating, we re-scale the predicted value back to the normal values and then compare with the ground truth..
5.4. Implementation Details
We first detail the method of extracting crowd flow feature as well as external factors feature and then describe our network optimization.
Crowd Flow Feature: For the crowd flow map at the time interval of the day, we extract its feature with a customized ResNet (He et al., 2016) structure, which is stacked by
residual units without any down-sampling operations. Each residual unit contains two convolutional layers followed by two ReLu layers. We set the channel numbers of all convolutional layers as 16 and the kernel sizes as.
External Factors Feature: For the external factors , we extract its feature with a simple neural network implemented by two fully-connected layers. The first FC layer has 256 neurons and the second one has neurons. The output of the last layer is further reshaped to a 3D tensor , which is the final feature of .
Finally, we concatenate and to generate the embedding feature , which can be expressed as
where denotes feature concatenation. For the external factors integrative feature described in Section 5.3 , it is the element-wise addition of and .
: We adopt the TensorFlow(Abadi et al., 2016) toolbox to implement our crowd flow prediction network. The filter weights of all convolutional layers and fully-connected layers are initialized by Xavier (Glorot and Bengio, 2010). The size of a minibatch is set to 64 and the learning rate is . We optimize our networks parameters in an end-to-end manner via Adam optimization (Kingma and Ba, 2014)
by minimizing the Euclidean loss for 270 epochs with a GTX 1080Ti GPU.
In this section, we first conduct experiments on two public benchmarks (e.g., TaxiBJ (Zhang et al., 2016) and BikeNYC (Zhang et al., 2016)) to evaluate the performance of our model on citywide crowd flow prediction. We further conduct an ablation study to demonstrate the effectiveness of each component in our model.
6.1. Dataset Setting and Evaluation Metric
We forecast the inflow and outflow of citywide crowds on two datasets: the TaxiBJ (Zhang et al., 2016) dataset for taxicab flow prediction and the BikeNYC (Zhang et al., 2016) dataset for bike flow prediction.
TaxiBJ Dataset: This dataset contains 22,459 time intervals of crowd flow maps with a size of , which are generated with Beijing taxicab GPS trajectory data. The external factors contain weather conditions, temperature, wind speed and 41 categories of holiday. For the fair comparison, we refer to (Zhang et al., 2017b) and take the data in the last four weeks as the testing set and the rest as the training set. In this dataset, we set the sequential length n and the periodic length m as and , respectively. As with ST-ResNet (Zhang et al., 2017b), the ResNet described in Section 5.4 is composed of 12 residual units.
BikeNYC Dataset: This dataset is generated with the NYC bike trajectory data, which contains 4,392 available time intervals crowd flow maps with the size of . The data of the last ten days are chosen to be the test set. As for external factors, 20 categories of the holiday are recorded. In this dataset, we set the sequential length n as 5 and the periodic length m as 7. For a fair comparison with ST-ResNet (Zhang et al., 2017b), we also utilize a ResNet described in Section 5.4 with 4 residual units to extract the crowd flow feature.
We adopt Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as evaluation metric to evaluate the performances of all the methods, which is defined as:
where and represent the predicted flow map and its ground truth map, respectively. indicates the number of samples used for validation.
6.2. Comparison with the State of the Art
|SARIMA (Williams et al., 1998)||26.88||10.56|
|VAR (Lütkepohl, 2011)||22.88||9.92|
|ARIMA (Box et al., 2015)||22.78||10.07|
|ST-ANN (Zhang et al., 2017b)||19.57||-|
|DeepST (Zhang et al., 2016)||18.18||7.43|
|ST-ResNet (Zhang et al., 2017b)||16.69||6.33|
We compare our method with six state-of-the-art methods, including Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (Box et al., 2015), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) (Williams et al., 1998), Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) (Lütkepohl, 2011), ST-ANN (Zhang et al., 2017b), DeepST (Zhang et al., 2016) and ST-ResNet (Zhang et al., 2017b). For these compared methods, we use the performances provided by Zhang et al. (Zhang et al., 2017b) as their results.
Table 1 summarizes the performance of the proposed method and other six methods. On TaxiBJ dataset, our method decreases the RMSE from 16.69 to 15.40 when compared with current best model, and achieves a relative improvement of 7.7%. Our method also boosts the prediction accuracy on BikeNYC, i.e., decreases RMSE from 6.33 to 5.64. Note that some compared methods, e.g., ST-ANN, DeepST and ST-ResNet, also employ deep learning techniques. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed ACFM is able to explicitly model the spatial-temporal feature as well as the attention weighting of each spatial influence, which greatly outperforms the state-of-the-art. Some crowd flow prediction maps of our full model on TaxiBJ dataset are shown on the second row of the Fig. 5. As can be seen, our generated crowd flow map is consistently closest to those of the ground-truth, which is accord with the quantitative RMSE comparison.
6.3. Ablation Study
Our full model for citywide crowd flow prediction consists of three components: sequential representation learning, periodic representation learning and temporally-varying fusion module. For convenience, we denote our full model as Sequential-Periodic Network (SPN) in the following experiments. To show the effectiveness of each component, we implement seven variants of our full model on the TaxiBJ dataset:
PCNN: directly concatenates the periodic features and feeds them to a convolutional layer with two filters followed by to predict future crowd flow;
SCNN: directly concatenates the sequential features and feeds them to a convolutional layer followed by to predict future crowd flow;
PRNN-w/o-Attention: takes periodic features as input and learns periodic representation with a LSTM layer to predict future crowd flow;
PRNN: takes periodic features as input and learns periodic representation with the proposed ACFM to predict future crowd flow;
SRNN-w/o-Attention: takes sequential features as input and learns sequential representation with a LSTM layer for crowd flow estimation;
SRNN: takes sequential features as input and learns sequential representation with the proposed ACFM to predict future crowd flow;
SPN-w/o-Fusion: directly merges sequential representation and periodic representation with equal weight (0.5) to predict future crowd flow.
Effectiveness of Spatial Attention: As shown in Table 2, adopting spatial attention, SRNN decreases the RMSE by 0.51, compared to SRNN-w/o-Attention. For another pair of variants, PRNN with spatial attention has the similar performance improvement, compared to PRNN-w/o-Attention. Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show some attentional maps generated by our method as well as the residual maps between the input crowd flow maps and their corresponding ground truth. We can observe that there is a negative correlation between the attentional maps and the residual maps. It indicates that our ACFM is able to capture valuable regions at each time step and make better predictions by inferring the trend of evolution. Roughly, the greater difference a region has, the smaller its weight, and vice versa. We can inhibit the impacts of the regions with great differences by multiplying the small weights on their corresponding location features. With the visualization of attentional maps, we can also get to know which regions have the primary positive impacts for the future flow prediction. According to the experiment, we can see that the proposed model can not only effectively improve the prediction accuracy, but also enhance the interpretability of the model to a certain extent.
Effectiveness of Sequential Representation Learning: As shown in Table 2, directly concatenating the sequential features for prediction, the baseline variant SCNN gets an RMSE of 17.48. When explicitly modeling the sequential contextual dependencies of crowd flow using the proposed ACFM, the variant SRNN decreases the RMSE to 16.11, with 7.8% relative performance improvement compared to the baseline SCNN, which indicates the effectiveness of the sequential representation learning.
Effectiveness of Periodic Representation Learning: We also explore different network architectures to learn the periodic representation. As shown in Table 2, the PCNN, which learns to estimate the flow map by simply concatenating all of the periodic features , only achieves RMSE of 33.44. In contrast, when introducing ACFM to learn the periodic representation, the RMSE drops to 32.52. This further demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed ACFM for spatial-temporal modeling.
Effectiveness of Temporally-Varying Fusion: When directly merging the two temporal representations with an equal contribution (0.5), SPN-w/o-fusion achieves a negligible improvement, compared to SRNN. In contrast, after using our proposed fusion strategy, the full model SPN decreases the RMSE from 16.11 to 15.40, with a relative improvement of 4.4% compared with SRNN. The results show that the significance of these two representations are not equal and are influenced by various factors. The proposed fusion strategy is effective to adaptively merge the different temporal representations and further improve the performance of crowd flow prediction.
Further Discussion: To analyze how each temporal representation contributes to the performance of crowd flow prediction, we further measure the average fusion weights of two temporal representations at each time interval. As shown in the right of Fig. 6, the fusion weights of sequential representation are greater than that of the periodic representation at most time excepting for wee hours. Based on this observation, we can conclude that the sequential representation is more essential for the crowd flow prediction. Although the weight is low, the periodic representation still helps to improve the performance of crowd flow prediction qualitatively and quantitatively. Fusing with periodic representation, we can decrease the RMSE of SRNN by 4.4% and generate more precise crowd flow maps, as shown in Table 2 and Fig. 5.
This work studies the spatial-temporal modeling for crowd flow prediction problem. To incorporate various factors that affect the flow changes, we propose a unified neural network module named Attentive Crowd Flow Machine (ACFM). In contrast to the existing flow estimation methods, our ACFM explicitly learns dynamic representations of temporally-varying data with an attention mechanism and can infer the evolution of the future crowd flow from historical crowd flow maps. A unified framework is also proposed to merge two types of temporal information for further prediction. According to the extensive experiments, we have exhaustively verified the effectiveness of our proposed ACFM on the task for citywide crowd flow prediction.
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