Asymptotics of Cointegration Tests for High-Dimensional VAR(k)
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The paper studies non-stationary high-dimensional vector autoregressions of order k, VAR(k). Additional deterministic terms such as trend or seasonality are allowed. The number of time periods, T, and number of coordinates, N, are assumed to be large and of the same order. Under such regime the first-order asymptotics of the Johansen likelihood ratio (LR), Pillai-Barlett, and Hotelling-Lawley tests for cointegration is derived: Test statistics converge to non-random integrals. For more refined analysis, the paper proposes and analyzes a modification of the Johansen test. The new test for the absence of cointegration converges to the partial sum of the Airy_1 point process. Supporting Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the same behavior persists universally in many situations beyond our theorems. The paper presents an empirical implementation of the approach to the analysis of stocks in S&P100 and of cryptocurrencies. The latter example has strong presence of multiple cointegrating relationships, while the former is consistent with the null of no cointegration.
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