Analyzing Client Behavior in a Syringe Exchange Program
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Multiple syringe exchange programs serve the Chicago metropolitan area, providing support for drug users to help prevent infectious diseases. Using data from one program over a ten-year period, we study the behavior of its clients, focusing on the temporal process governing their visits to service locations and their demographics. We construct a phase-type distribution with an affine relationship between model parameters and features of an individual client. The phase-type distribution governs inter-arrival times between reoccurring visits of each client, and is informed by characteristics of a client including age, gender, ethnicity and more. The inter-arrival time model is a sub-model in a simulation model that we construct for the larger system. The phase-type distribution model allows us to provide a personalized prediction regarding the client's time-to-return to a service location so that better intervention decisions can be made. And, the simulation model can help inform improvements to the overall system.
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