Analysis of the evolution of agroclimatic risks in a context of climate variability in the region of Segou in Mali
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In the Sahel region the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in a context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities are described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters were analized as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.
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