An Environmentally-Adaptive Hawkes Process with An Application to COVID-19

01/25/2021

∙

by   Tingnan Gong, et al.

∙

0

∙

share

We proposed a new generalized model based on the classical Hawkes process with environmental multipliers, which is called an environmentally-adaptive Hawkes (EAH) model. Compared to the classical self-exciting Hawkes process, the EAH model exhibits more flexibility in a macro environmentally temporal sense, and can model more complex processes by using dynamic branching matrix. We demonstrate the well-definedness of this EAH model. A more specified version of this new model is applied to model COVID-19 pandemic data through an efficient EM-like algorithm. Consequently, the proposed model consistently outperforms the classical Hawkes process.