Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) for Analyzing Effects of Lockdown Measures

04/25/2020

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by   Anuj Srivastava, et al.

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This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for Corona COVID-19 pandemic. The main goal of the ALPS simulation is analyze effects of preventive measures – imposition and lifting of lockdown norms – on the rates of infections, fatalities and recoveries. The model assumptions and choices represent a balance between competing demands of being realistic and being efficient for real-time inferences. The model provides quantification of gains in reducing casualties by imposition and maintenance of restrictive measures in place.