Accounting for phenology in the analysis of animal movement
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The analysis of animal tracking data provides an important source of scientific understanding and discovery in ecology. Observations of animal trajectories using telemetry devices provide researchers with information about the way animals interact with their environment and each other. For many species, specific geographical features in the landscape can have a strong effect on behavior. Such features may correspond to a single point (e.g., dens or kill sites), or to higher-dimensional subspaces (e.g., rivers or lakes). Features may be relatively static in time (e.g., coastlines or home-range centers), or may be dynamic (e.g., sea ice extent or areas of high-quality forage for herbivores). We introduce a novel model for animal movement that incorporates active selection for dynamic features in a landscape. Our approach is motivated by the study of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) movement. During the sea ice melt season, polar bears spend much of their time on sea ice above shallow, biologically productive water where they hunt seals. The changing distribution and characteristics of sea ice throughout the late spring through early fall means that the location of valuable habitat is constantly shifting. We develop a model for the movement of polar bears that accounts for the effect of this important landscape feature. We introduce a two-stage procedure for approximate Bayesian inference that allows us to analyze over 300,000 observed locations of 186 polar bears from 2012--2016. We use our proposed model to answer a particular question posed by wildlife managers who seek to cluster polar bears from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas into sub-populations.
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