A unified framework of epidemic spreading prediction by empirical mode decomposition based ensemble learning techniques

01/03/2019
by   Yun Feng, et al.
0

In this paper, a unified susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible-aware (SEIS-A) framework is proposed to combine epidemic spreading with individuals' on-line self-consultation behaviors. An epidemic spreading prediction model is established based on the SEIS-A framework. The prediction process contains two phases. In phase I, the time series data of disease density are decomposed through the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In phase II, the ensemble learning techniques which use the on-line query data as an additional input are applied to these IMFs. Finally, experiments for prediction of weekly consultation rates of Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hong Kong are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The main advantage of this method is that it outperforms other methods on fluctuating complex data.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

01/11/2014

Does Restraining End Effect Matter in EMD-Based Modeling Framework for Time Series Prediction? Some Experimental Evidences

Following the "decomposition-and-ensemble" principle, the empirical mode...
02/22/2020

A New Unified Deep Learning Approach with Decomposition-Reconstruction-Ensemble Framework for Time Series Forecasting

A new variational mode decomposition (VMD) based deep learning approach ...
05/18/2015

DopeLearning: A Computational Approach to Rap Lyrics Generation

Writing rap lyrics requires both creativity to construct a meaningful, i...
12/21/2019

Graph Message Passing with Cross-location Attentions for Long-term ILI Prediction

Forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI) is of prime importance to epide...
11/23/2020

Analysis of Empirical Mode Decomposition-based Load and Renewable Time Series Forecasting

The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been...
06/21/2022

Epicasting: An Ensemble Wavelet Neural Network (EWNet) for Forecasting Epidemics

Infectious diseases remain among the top contributors to human illness a...
10/15/2019

How to eliminate detour behaviors in E-hailing: On-line detection and Pricing regulation

With the fast development of information and communication technology (I...