DeepAI AI Chat
Log In Sign Up

A Statistical Exploration of Duckworth-Lewis Method Using Bayesian Inference

10/01/2018
by   Indrabati Bhattacharya, et al.
0

Duckworth-Lewis (D/L) method is the incumbent rain rule used to decide the result of a limited overs cricket match should it not be able to reach its natural conclusion. Duckworth and Lewis (1998) devised a two factor relationship between the numbers of overs a team had remaining and the number of wickets they had lost in order to quantify the percentage resources a team has at any stage of the match. As number of remaining overs decrease and lost wickets increase the resources are expected to decrease. The resource table which is still being used by ICC (International Cricket Council) for 50 overs cricket match suffers from lack of monotonicity both in numbers of overs left and number of wickets lost. We apply Bayesian inference to build a resource table which overcomes the non monotonicity problem of the current D/L resource table and show that it gives better prediction for teams in first innings score and hence it is more suitable for using in rain affected matches.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

06/01/2021

Duckworth-Lewis-Stern Method Comparison with Machine Learning Approach

This work presents an analysis of the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern (DLS) method...
01/19/2023

Tight Bounds on 3-Team Manipulations in Randomized Death Match

Consider a round-robin tournament on n teams, where a winner must be (po...
05/08/2019

Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression

This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 201...
05/05/2021

Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league

This study aimed to provide a framework to evaluate team attacking perfo...
11/20/2019

Bayesian Hierarchical Models for the Prediction of Volleyball Results

Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in...
10/27/2021

Performance prediction of massively parallel computation by Bayesian inference

A performance prediction method for massively parallel computation is pr...