A Simple Prediction Model for the Development Trend of 2019-nCov Epidemics Based on Medical Observations

02/02/2020
by   Ye Liang, et al.
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In order to predict the development trend of the 2019 coronavirus (2019-nCov), we established an prediction model to predict the number of diagnoses case in China except Hubei Province. From January 25 to January 29, 2020, we optimized 6 prediction models, 5 of them based on the number of medical observations to predicts the peak time of confirmed diagnosis will appear on the period of morning of January 29 from 24:00 to February 2 before 5 o'clock 24:00. Then we tracked the data from 24 o'clock on January 29 to 24 o'clock on January 31, and found that the predicted value of the data on the 3rd has a small deviation from the actual value, and the actual value has always remained within the range predicted by the comprehensive prediction model 6. Therefore we discloses this finding and will continue to track whether this pattern can be maintained for longer. We believe that the changes medical observation case number may help to judge the trend of the epidemic situation in advance.

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