A scale of interpretation for likelihood ratios and Bayes factors

12/11/2022

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Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.

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A scale of interpretation for likelihood ratios and Bayes factors

How to Measure Evidence: Bayes Factors or Relative Belief Ratios?

Empirical Bayes factors for common hypothesis tests

Evidence Against Evidence Theory (?!)

Bayes Factors can only Quantify Evidence w.r.t. Sets of Parameters, not w.r.t. (Prior) Distributions on the Parameter

Computing analytic Bayes factors from summary statistics in repeated-measures designs

Score-based likelihood ratios to evaluate forensic pattern evidence

Forensic strength of evidence statements should preferably be likelihood ratios calculated using relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models

A scale of interpretation for likelihood ratios and Bayes factors

Related Research

How to Measure Evidence: Bayes Factors or Relative Belief Ratios?

Empirical Bayes factors for common hypothesis tests

Evidence Against Evidence Theory (?!)

Bayes Factors can only Quantify Evidence w.r.t. Sets of Parameters, not w.r.t. (Prior) Distributions on the Parameter

Computing analytic Bayes factors from summary statistics in repeated-measures designs

Score-based likelihood ratios to evaluate forensic pattern evidence

Forensic strength of evidence statements should preferably be likelihood ratios calculated using relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models