A sample approach to the estimation of the critical parameters of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics: an operational design with a focus on the Italian health system
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Given the urgent informational needs connected with the pandemic diffusion of the Covid-19 infection, in this paper we propose a sample design to build up a continuous-time surveillance system. With respect to other observational strategies, our proposal has three important elements of strength and originality: (i) it not only aims at providing a snapshot of the phenomenon in a single moment of time, but it is designed to be a continuous survey, repeated in several waves through time, (ii) the statistical optimality properties of the estimators are formally derived in this paper and (iii) it is rapidly operational as it is required by the emergency connected with diffusion of the virus. The sample design is thought having in mind, in particular, the SAR-CoV-2 diffusion in Italy during the Spring of 2020. However, the proposed sampling design is very general, and we are confident that it could be easily extended to other geographical areas and to possible future epidemic outbreaks.
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