A Model-Free and Finite-Population-Exact Framework for Randomized Experiments Subject to Outcome Misclassification via Integer Programming
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Randomized experiments (trials) are the gold standard for making causal inferences because randomization removes systematic confounding and the need for assuming any data-generating (super-population) models. However, outcome misclassification (e.g. measurement error or reporting bias in binary outcomes) often exists in practice and even a few misclassified outcomes may distort a causal conclusion drawn from a randomized experiment. All existing approaches to outcome misclassification rely on some data-generating model and therefore may not be applicable to randomized experiments without additional strong assumptions. We propose a model-free and finite-population-exact framework for randomized experiments subject to outcome misclassification, which does not require adding any additional assumptions to a randomized experiment. A central quantity in our framework is "warning accuracy," defined as the threshold such that the causal conclusion drawn from the measured outcomes may differ from that based on the true outcomes if the accuracy of the measured outcomes did not surpass that threshold. We show how learning the warning accuracy and related information and a dual concept can benefit the design, analysis, and validation of a randomized experiment. We show that the warning accuracy can be computed efficiently (even for large datasets) by adaptively reformulating an integer quadratically constrained linear program with respect to the randomization design. Our framework covers both Fisher's sharp null and Neyman's weak null, works for a wide range of randomization designs, and can also be applied to observational studies adopting randomization-based inference. We apply our framework to a large randomized clinical trial of the prevention of prostate cancer.
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