A minimalist approach to scenario-based forecasting of electric vehicle consumption
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Electrification of transport is a key strategy in reducing carbon emissions. Many countries have adopted policies of complete but gradual transformation to electric vehicles (EVs). However, mass EV adoption also means a spike in electricity demand, which in turn can disrupt existing electricity infrastructure. Good EV consumption forecasts are key for distribution network operators (DNOs) to effectively manage demand and capacity. In this paper, we consider a suite of models to forecast EV consumption. More specifically, we evaluate a nested modeling approach for scenario-based forecasting of EV consumption. Using the data collected as part of the Electric Nation trials, we studied statistical models (Time Series Regression and Regression with ARIMA Errors), scalable machine learning systems (Extreme Gradient Boosting or XGB), and artificial neural networks (Long Short-Term Memory Networks or LSTMs). We found that LSTMs delivered the best forecasting performance.
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