A Microscopic Epidemic Model and Pandemic Prediction Using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

by   Changliu Liu, et al.
Carnegie Mellon University

This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every agent can choose its activity level that affects the spread of the disease. Then by minimizing agents' cost functions, we solve for the optimal decisions for individual agents in the framework of game theory and multi-agent reinforcement learning. Given the optimal decisions of all agents, we can make predictions about the spread of the disease. We show that there are negative externalities in the sense that infected agents do not have enough incentives to protect others, which then necessitates external interventions to regulate agents' behaviors. In the discussion section, future directions are pointed out to make the model more realistic.


Multi-Agent Informational Learning Processes

We introduce a new mathematical model of multi-agent reinforcement learn...

A Regulation Enforcement Solution for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

Human behaviors are regularized by a variety of norms or regulations, ei...

A Microscopic Pandemic Simulator for Pandemic Prediction Using Scalable Million-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Microscopic epidemic models are powerful tools for government policy mak...

Modeling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics

In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate th...

Humans of Simulated New York (HOSNY): an exploratory comprehensive model of city life

The model presented in this paper experiments with a comprehensive simul...

Robust Stochastic Stability with Applications to Social Distancing in a Pandemic

The theory of learning in games has extensively studied situations where...

Robust Multi-agent Counterfactual Prediction

We consider the problem of using logged data to make predictions about w...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset