A Hierarchical Modelling Framework for Correcting Delayed Reporting in Spatio-Temporal Disease Surveillance Data

12/12/2019
by   Oliver Stoner, et al.
0

Delayed reporting is a well established problem in the surveillance of infectious diseases such as dengue fever and influenza. For effective monitoring and intervention, it is crucial to be able to detect outbreaks well before they have been fully observed, based on any partial reports which may be available at the time. Here we propose a substantial spatio-temporal extension to an existing hierarchical modelling framework, to allow for structured and unstructured spatio-temporal variability in the incidence of disease cases and in the reporting delay mechanism itself. We apply a specific instance of this framework to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) data from the state of Paraná, Brazil. We illustrate how between-region similarity in temporal and seasonal trends can be accounted for, and demonstrate the importance of flexibly allowing for dependence between regions.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

research
09/03/2018

A Hierarchical Framework for Correcting Under-Reporting in Count Data

Tuberculosis poses a global health risk and Brazil is among the top twen...
research
02/08/2021

A Bayesian spatio-temporal nowcasting model for public health decision-making and surveillance

As COVID-19 spread through the United States in 2020, states began to se...
research
11/08/2020

Spatio-temporal small area surveillance of the Covid-19 pandemics

The emergence of Covid-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiologic...
research
03/29/2018

A Large Scale Spatio-temporal Binomial Regression Model for Estimating Seroprevalence Trends

This paper develops a large-scale Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regr...
research
07/11/2012

Bayesian Biosurveillance of Disease Outbreaks

Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem tod...
research
03/03/2021

A Multi-Modal Respiratory Disease Exacerbation Prediction Technique Based on a Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Architecture

Chronic respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary dise...
research
04/06/2019

Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

In many fields and applications count data can be subject to delayed rep...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset