A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to combining multiple data sources: A case study in size estimation

12/09/2020
by   Jacob Parsons, et al.
0

To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, injection drug users, and men who have sex with men. While having accurate estimates for the size of these key populations is important, any attempt to directly contact or count members of these populations is difficult. As a result, indirect methods are used to produce size estimates. Multiple approaches for estimating the size of such populations have been suggested but often give conflicting results. It is therefore necessary to have a principled way to combine and reconcile these results. To this end, we present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the size of key populations that combines multiple estimates and sources of information. The proposed model can make use of multiple years of data and explicitly models the systematic error in the data sources used. We use the model to estimate the size of injection drug users in Ukraine. We evaluate the appropriateness of the model and compare the contribution of each data source to the final estimates.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 25

01/14/2018

A Bayesian Evidence Synthesis Approach to Estimate Disease Prevalence in Hard-To-Reach Populations: Hepatitis C in New York City

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV)...
09/15/2021

Bivariate Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Combining Summary Measures and their Uncertainties from Multiple Sources

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quan...
12/15/2019

Modeling the marked presence-only data: a case study of estimating the female sex worker size in Malawi

Continued fine-scale mapping of HIV/AIDS populations is needed to meet g...
12/20/2017

Linking Administrative Data: An Evolutionary Schema

Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) has committed unreservedly to an admin...
04/12/2018

Fast approaches for Bayesian estimation of size of hard-to-reach populations using Network Scale-up

The Network scale-up method is commonly used to overcome difficulties in...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.