Epilocal: a real-time tool for local epidemic monitoring

03/17/2020
by   Marco Bonetti, et al.
0

We describe Epilocal, a simple R program designed to automatically download the most recent data on reported infected SARS-CoV-2 cases for each Italian province and to provide a simple descriptive analysis. For each province, the cumulative number of reported infected cases is available each day. The data are analyzed through a Poisson generalized linear model with logarithmic link function and polynomial regression on time. Automatic model selection is performed to choose among a first-, second-, and third-degree polynomial, based on the statistical significance of the corresponding estimated parameters. The model is used to produce up-to-today estimates of the growth rate of the infected subjects in each province. Results are plotted on a map of the country to allow for a visual assessment of the geographic distribution of the areas of differential trends in the number of cases. For each province, the most recent reported infection rate with respect to the resident population is also shown through the use of symbols having area proportional to such rates.

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